This would mean that about one in three Americans has already been infected by SARS-CoV-2. has likely been about five times higher than reported. ![]() Owing to minimal and patchwork testing efforts, lead researcher Jeff Shaman told me, the actual number of infections in the U.S. ![]() is already much closer to Fauci’s stated threshold of 70 to 80 percent than our case numbers suggest. Recent research from Columbia University estimates that the U.S. does finally seem to be experiencing some protective effects of population-level immunity. But for all the failures that led to this point, the U.S. No other country has endured so much death and illness. The life expectancy in the United States is now a year shorter than before COVID-19. The energy of the moment could be an opportunity-or Americans could be dancing in the eye of a hurricane. The dramatic change in the trajectory and tenor of the news could give a sense that the pandemic is over. In short, the summer could feel revelatory. People might go out of their way to talk with strangers, merely to gaze upon the long-forbidden, exposed mouth of a speaking human. Pre-pandemic complaints about a crowded subway car or a mediocre sandwich could be replaced by the awe of simply riding a bus or sitting in a diner. For some, the summer of 2021 might conjure that of 1967, when barefoot people swayed languidly in the grass, united by an appreciation for the tenuousness of life. The 1918 influenza that left the planet short of some 50 million people-several times as many as had just been killed in a gruesome war-gave way to the Roaring ’20s, when Americans danced and flouted Prohibition, hearing the notes that weren’t being played. Periods of intense hardship are sometimes followed by unique moments of collective catharsis or awakening. The pain wrought by the virus has differed enormously by location, race, and class, but a global pandemic still may be as close as the world can come to a shared tragedy. In most of the U.S., the summer could feel … “normal.” People could travel and dance indoors and hug grandparents, their own or others’. Sports, theater, and cultural events could resume. Pre-pandemic norms could return to schools, churches, and restaurants. Because case numbers guide local policies, much of the country could soon have reason to lift many or even most restrictions on distancing, gathering, and masking. If all of this holds true, it would mean that many aspects of pre-pandemic life will return even before summer is upon us. Despite some concerns about new coronavirus variants, Ashish Jha, the dean of the Brown University School of Public Health, told me that he doesn’t see viral mutation as a reason to expect that most people couldn’t be well protected within that time frame. Last week, he suddenly threw out May or early June as a window for when most Americans could have access to vaccines. ![]() could vaccinate 70 to 80 percent of the population and reach herd immunity. Until very recently, Anthony Fauci had been citing August as the month by which the U.S. Even academics who have spent the pandemic delivering ominous warnings have shifted their tone to cautiously optimistic now that vaccination rates are exploding. This is expected to continue, and rates of serious illness and death will plummet even faster than cases, as high-risk populations are vaccinated. The summer of 2021 is shaping up to be historic.Īfter months of soaring deaths and infections, COVID-19 cases across the United States are declining even more sharply than experts anticipated.
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